Biden vs. Trump: WTF?

For the last 2 weeks, the media, politicians, and others have spent most of their time arguing about the future of the Democratic party, and whether President Joe Biden should step down “for the good of the country.”  It has been a confusing time, especially seeing some of the calls for Biden to step down coming from former allies and friends.  Even as Joe has adjusted his schedule to hold press conferences, sit down for interviews, and speak at rallies, the pressure continues. 

Last night, Joe Biden held a public press conference to discuss the NATO conference and the current state of foreign policy.  He also took questions on all sorts of subjects from a cadre of reporters for over 50 minutes.  He made a couple of mistakes, as he has been known to do for 50 years, but overall was impressive in his command of the facts, had several great moments, and was in control of the room.  Many people figured that this performance would put the controversy to bed, but it doesn’t look like that is going to happen. 

Polling over the last several months has suggested that that the election in November will be close, and nothing has really changed significantly even given the onslaught of negative stories and press resulting from a poor debate performance and questions about his health and vigor.  I’ve spent the last couple weeks trying to understand both sides of this controversy, and I’ve listened to all sorts of theories about why this is happening now, after over 14 million voters selected Joe Biden as their nominee.  It is equally confusing as to why Democrats (or Americans, for that matter) would want to move on from a President who has been as successful, or more, than virtually any President in my lifetime. 

Let’s first examine some of the theories:

1. Biden is too old to do the job, and those calling for him to drop out are just being honest about the reality of the situation, while those sticking with Joe are failing to grasp reality. 
2. The polls show that voters are concerned about Biden’s age and would prefer a different (younger, more energetic) candidate who could better make the case against Donald Trump.
3. The people calling on Biden to drop out are racists and/or sexists who fear that if Biden is re-elected, he will fail to finish his term, and a black woman will become President. 
4. The people calling on Biden to drop out are rich, white men (mostly) who are trying to sabotage Biden because he wants to raise their taxes.
5. The “media” wants Biden to drop out either to:
1. Throw the Presidential election into disarray at the last minute, creating a potential contested Democratic convention, therefore creating more news for them to report on.
2. Make the election of Donald Trump more likely, which is much better for the news industry, despite the clear and obvious danger to the country, and the world.

I’m sure I missed a few of the theories, but these are the main ones that I’ve seen and heard.  One of the things that has made it hard to comprehend is that the strongest voices calling for Biden to drop out don’t seem to have a cohesive plan for what happens then.  Considering all of the concern that Biden should drop out “to prevent Trump from winning,” you would hope that they had reason to be confident that a new candidate would make a 2^nd Trump term less likely.  I simply don’t see this at all, which makes this even more confusing.  Sure, a lot of people have said that VP Harris would be a stronger candidate then Biden, but would she actually? Others have talked about some crazy “speed dating primary” where I assume Democratic party insiders would just pick whomever they want as the candidate.  I’m pretty sure the Q Anon crowd is insisting that Michelle Obama is going to jump in and be the candidate.  Personally, I don’t see how any of these options are better suited to beat Trump, except maybe Obama, but that simply isn’t happening. 

Here is what we know for sure.  The Biden/Harris campaign has somewhere around $250 million in their campaign account, raising almost $130 million in June alone.  They have also setup campaign offices and staff in pretty much every state to organize and get out the vote for Biden.  Joe Biden is the incumbent President of the United States, and there is no more accurate predictor of who wins an election than that simple fact.  Younger, more energetic candidates had every opportunity to run and beat Biden in the primary, and failed to do so, with Biden taking well over 80% of the votes even given some high-profile defections due to the Israeli/Palestinian conflict.  Biden wasn’t even on the Ballet in New Hampshire and he won about 64% of the vote as a write-in candidate. Polls of Democratic voters and Democratic leaning independents have consistently shown that they will support Biden in November.  Right leaning groups and the GOP will absolutely contest anyone other than Biden being on the ballot in November (and I think that includes Harris).  Whether or not they are successful is not the point, as it will absolutely create chaos and confusion and make it much easier for Trump to claim cheating as he has done in every election he has been involved in (whether he won or lost).

Based on these facts, there are only two reasonable options:

1. Run Kamala Harris as the nominee so that she has access to the funds and election infrastructure that is already built. 
2.  Stick with Biden and do everything we can to make sure he wins. 
3.  There is no Option 3 – any other candidate will be starting from scratch, have no Presidential record to run on, and will have to fight lawsuits in virtually every state controlled by Republicans. 

Let’s take a look at option 1:  I believe that Kamala Harris has an excellent record as a lawyer, AG, US Senator and VPOTUS.  She has done an admirable job as VP on a number of issues, but has not had a super high profile so far. This is simply true, whether that was intentional within the administration, or due to the media not covering her accomplishments.  If you are someone who believes in either theory #3 or #4 above, elevating a black woman who mostly supports Biden’s policies is not going to satisfy those asking for a new candidate.  While I expect that elevating Harris would likely hold much of the base of the party together, the key question is whether you lose more votes by replacing Biden with Harris than you gain.   Does anyone remember 2016? Hillary Clinton was not only the most qualified candidate to ever run for POTUS in the history of our country, she was also extremely popular before she became a candidate.  Yes, sexism is a real thing people, and so is racism.  I don’t know how this would turn out, and neither do you.

By sticking with Joe, you get to keep the money, keep the election offices, run on the success of the current administration, and promote a candidate that is not only qualified for the job, but he is actually doing the job (quite well).  Also, you don’t alienate the 14 million primary voters who already said they supported him, and Harris is still waiting in the wings if she needs to step up.  Polls currently show that Harris would perform worse than Biden in a head-to-head with Trump.  Any boost that she would get by being the candidate (and being put in the spotlight) is very likely to be tempered by the onslaught of negative stories, rumors and lies that will be spread about her.  In contrast, they have been going after Joe for years now, and have barely landed a punch (just look at Comer’s clown show committee and the failed “impeachment” efforts). 

This is where things get interesting.  If, as I’ve pointed out, there are not many good options, and the best chance of beating Trump seems to be sticking with a Biden/Harris ticket, why are we still seeing so many people calling for him to drop out?  I have a theory, and I’ll try to explain it below.

I’ve been following politics pretty closely since the Bush/Gore election in 2000.  One of the common things that I hear from people is that the “parties are essentially the same”, that “everyone is corrupt on both sides” and that “it doesn’t matter who you vote for” because “nothing will change anyway.” I definitely don’t think the parties are the same and I absolutely think voting matters.  I also don’t believe that all politicians are corrupt, but I do believe there are corrupt politicians regardless of party affiliation.  The final statement is interesting, however.  I do believe that there is something to the belief that no matter who we elect to be our representatives, that “real change” is very hard, and that the people in power are much more comfortable supporting the status quo than enacting real, structural changes even if those changes are popular and make us a stronger nation and society. 

During the primary season of 2020, I was a big fan of Elizabeth Warren.  In fact, I had followed her career going back years to when I first saw her on The Daily Show with Jon Stewart and long before she entered politics.  My reasons for backing Warren basically boiled down to her understanding that we needed real structural changes in our country if we wanted to fix our many problems.  She understood that we needed to reform bankruptcy laws for families going broke under piles of medical debt.  She was able to communicate the need for better childcare options so that working mothers and two income families could survive.  She made a case for regulation in the technology industry by pointing out emerging monopolies and unchecked power and influence due to years of mergers and consolidation.  She was the creator of the CFTB (consumer financial protection bureau) which was created to fight back against abuses by large corporations who had been scamming consumers for decades.  She also supported some versions of universal healthcare and increases to the minimum wage to help struggling families get ahead. 

I also liked Kamala, but I definitely had some PTSD after Hillary lost on 2016.  Mayor Pete was super smart, but he was also too young and inexperienced, and I worried about whether he could pull enough of the African American vote.  Beto was a great story, but he lacked enough of a national profile to really compete.  Bloomberg?  Nope.  Then there was “Uncle Joe,” who was probably my 3^rd or 4^th choice in the race.  For me, he was a great person, an excellent vice president and an admirable public servant with decades of experience.  He was also old.  He was considered a “moderate”.  He was an institutionalist.  He was a “gaffe machine” and had been for years.  I just didn’t see him as the kind of transformational leader that we needed to get the country back on track.  Then he won South Carolina, and everything changed.  He became the front runner almost overnight and went on to overwhelmingly win the nomination.  I still had my doubts, but he was a much better option than the alternative, so I was all in. 

I was also really, really wrong. Joe Biden’s administration has been transformative, successful, and much more progressive than I could have ever hoped for.  Not only did Joe’s years of experience in Congress help him to push through multiple bills with a tiny majority, but his steady hand (and great team) were able to pull us out of a recession, reasonably mange the Covid crisis, and restore our relationships with our most important allies.  He has also managed to admirably handle the Ukraine crisis, inflation and the economy, and other major issues while fighting for “real change” for Americans.  His unapologetic support of unions, especially during the United Auto Worker strikes was bold and unprecedented. He managed to provide important help to people with diabetes by capping insulin costs.  Medicare can now negotiate drug prices directly with pharmaceutical companies.  He passed a minimum tax on large businesses and properly funded the IRS so it had the resources to go after wealthy tax cheats.  He was able to make progress fighting climate change by growing and investing in green energy sources.  He actually passed a gun control bill. 

After all of these important wins, I can understand why Republicans and special interests want him to drop out, but what about the Democrats?  Why would we want to ask the most successful President in recent history to step aside after accomplishing so much of “our” agenda?  And even if everyone isn’t as jazzed about these accomplishments as I am, why would you want to throw an election into chaos and potentially re-elect the worst President in the history of the United States.  Because he is old?  Because he’s incompetent and senile?  I just don’t buy any of it.  I’ll take an old and senile President with a ¼ of these accomplishments over a convicted felon, adjudicated rapist, authoritarian loving, racist fake spray painted billionaire any day of the week, and twice on Sundays. 

Here is what I think is actually going on.  Biden and his administration have been too successful in remaking the country and the economy.  The corporate Democrats and powerful special interests (including the mass media) do not like that Joe Biden has been able to raise taxes on them, properly fund the IRS, block mergers, and reinstate and improve regulations on businesses.  They don’t like that Biden and the Democrats were able to cap insulin prices, negotiate drug prices for Medicare, or combat “junk fees” in many industries (airlines, banking, real estate).  They don’t like seeing President Biden standing on the picket lines with striking auto workers.  They do not like that Joe Biden is speaking out about how we need to build more housing to make prices more affordable.  I don’t think that these powers want Kamala Harris to be President either, but I think they believe she would be easier to control.  Their ultimate goal is a contested convention, where they can pick a moderate Democrat of their choosing.  I believe that candidate will be well funded but will halt much of the progress that we have seen over the last 3.5 years.  Worse than that, I believe that candidate will LOSE, and we will get Trump and Project 2025. 

Fortunately, these forces are a very small minority of Democrats, left leaning independents, and reasonable (non-MAGA) Republicans.  Unfortunately, they are also very powerful.  They control the media, and therefore the narrative that most people see, hear or read every day.  They have lots of money and are major donors to both political parties.  I assume they have promised large donations to anyone calling for Biden to drop out (I see you Angie Craig and Dean Phillips).  I believe that they are strategically targeting Democrats who are also centrists, and those who may be at risk of losing re-election in their districts.  The celebrities (Clooney, Reiner, King, etc…) are a bit more of a mystery, but I’m sure they have their reasons, legitimate or not.  In any case, the media spends way more time talking about Clooney calling for Biden to drop out than Trump being named in the Epstein files.   

If I am correct in my assumptions, I expect that this will not stop, no matter how many press conferences, interviews or town halls that Biden does, or how well he performs.  It doesn’t matter that the economy is booming, that inflation is cratering, that manufacturing jobs are coming back, or that energy production is at all-time highs. It also apparently doesn’t matter that Donald Trump is a convicted felon, that he lies every time he speaks, that he is nearly as old, twice as delusional, and unhealthier than Joe Biden.  It doesn’t matter that his closest allies are Putin, Xi, Orban and Kim Jong Un.  Do these people have any concern that he is a rapist who was fined $90 million for defaming his victim, $350 million for business fraud, or $20 million for running a fake University?  Are they concerned that he is prohibited from operating a charity (or any business) in the state of New York?  Do they care that he was best friends with Jeffrey Epstein for years and we have documentation that he flew on his plane, stayed on his island, and is credibly accused of raping a 13 year old girl and threatening to kill her if she told anyone? 

We are at an inflection point in this country, and we have been here before.  There have been opportunities for our citizens to pull together against a common enemy and move this country closer to our stated ideals.  In most cases, the powerful elites have managed to divide us through hate, fear and disinformation to protect their power and wealth.  This happened after the Civil War, when Lincoln was assassinated, and Andrew Johnson rolled back the progress of Reconstruction.  This happened in the South when Jim Crow laws (re)established freed slaves as second-class citizens, giving poor working class whites a leg up.   This happened under FDR when the New Deal policies were watered down to mostly exclude blacks from taking advantage of programs meant to lift people up into the new middle class. 

And it is happening right now. 

Here is where I have landed after the last few weeks.

•  Joe Biden has the BEST chance to beat Donald Trump. 
•  Joe Biden WILL beat Donald Trump if we all show up and vote FOR Democracy and AGAINST tyranny. 
• We have LOST the media battle – there are no fair and balanced networks anymore.
• Talk to your friends and family about the actual policies that Democrats are fighting for.
• Google Project 2025
•  Ignore the POLLS (even if they look good) – they are NOT accurate, and have not been accurate for years.
•  VOTE like your future depends on it, because it does. 
• WALK, RUN, DRIVE, CRAWL to the polls on November 5^th, and vote for Joe Biden and Kamala Harris.