It has been a long ride already, seeing the entry and exit
of big names such as Kamala Harris, Corey Booker, Beto O’Rourke, Amy
Kloubachar, as well as lesser knowns Tom Steyer, Pete Buttigieg, John
Hickenlooper, Andrew Yang, and Jay Inslee. As the results roll in from Super Tuesday, it
is almost certainly down to three candidates to take on Donald Trump (no, I don’t
consider Bloomberg a contender, but more on that later). Whether you are a supporter
of Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, or Joe Biden, it has become clear that one
of those three is going to take on Trump in the general election. Now that things are getting real, I figured I’d
attempt to summarize my thoughts about the “Big 3+1” finalists, and what we can
expect from now until November 3rd.
How did we get here?
For many people, their preferred candidate is no longer in
the race. From a field that at times
included as many as 20 candidates, the vast majority are now sitting on the
sidelines with the rest of us. I’ve talked
to people who think that Kamala Harris dropped out too soon, or that Beto O’Rourke
would have gained popularity had he stuck it out. Unfortunately, the reality with such a big field
is that it is “All About the Benjamins” (I may be dating myself). It costs a ton of money to build a national
operation, hire staff, travel to events, and promote a candidate’s vision on
TV, radio and social media. For most of
these candidates, the well simply dried up before they could mount a real
challenge. Bloomberg, and to a lesser extent
Steyer, could afford an extended run all the way to the convention, even if
their support doesn’t justify such actions.
For better or worse, Biden, Warren and Sanders are the three candidates
that have both the following and the finances to stay in the fight.
Where are we now?
We are now officially down to Biden, Bernie, Beth plus
Bloomberg (3B+1).
Joe Biden has been the presumptive nominee since
before he was officially a candidate in the race. His support generally draws strength from his
familiarity and name recognition. He was
a seven term US Senator from the state of Delaware and two term Vice President
to Barack Obama. Ideologically, he
profiles as a “centrist” or “moderate” Democrat and has the most support of the
remaining contenders from “the party establishment.” He is also the candidate with
the most momentum heading into Super Tuesday, fresh off a big win in the South
Carolina primary and high-profile endorsements from former rivals Klobuchar,
Buttigieg, and O’Rourke.
Bernie Sanders has been a mayor, US Representative,
and US Senator from the state of Vermont as part of a nearly 40-year career in
politics. For most of his long career, Sanders
did not belong to either major political party, deciding to run as an Independent
until his unsuccessful 2016 run in the Democratic Presidential primary. A self-avowed “Democratic Socialist,” Sanders
has argued for progressive social and economic policies and has warned against
the corrupting influences of capitalism.
He favors a Democratic system of government with strong government
services like Denmark or Finland, rather than authoritarian “socialist”
countries like Cuba or Venezuela. Like Biden,
Sanders had a significant head start from a name recognition and fundraising
standpoint due to his extended Presidential run in 2016.
Elizabeth Warren is currently a second-term Senator
from Massachusetts and a former Harvard law professor. She rose to national prominence in the months
following the 2008 financial collapse when she chaired the Congressional
Oversight Panel, which helped to manage the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP,
aka the “bank bailouts”). Warren later went
on to create the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB), a new independent
government agency designed to protect and advocate for consumers in their
interactions with the complicated US financial sector. In the primary, Warren has positioned herself
as a unifying option between Sanders and Biden ideologically; a progressive voice
who believes in regulated Capitalism as an economic system. Throughout her campaign, her anti-corruption
message and litany of plans have resonated with voters, even as she has
struggled to keep pace with frontrunners Sanders and Biden.
Mike Bloomberg is a multi-billionaire media mogul and
three term New York City mayor. He is
also a “former” lifelong Republican who entered the 2020 Democratic race in
November. His campaign has consisted almost
entirely of flooding the airwaves with advertisements, jointly trashing Donald
Trump and promoting himself as a viable alternative. As the 9th richest person (Forbes)
in the world, Bloomberg’s obscene wealth (~$53 Billion in 2019) has propelled
him into the conversation despite his lack of formal organization or campaign
infrastructure. His rising polling
numbers recently allowed him to join the others on the debate stage, even
though he wasn’t even on the ballot in pre-Super Tuesday states. At this point, there doesn’t seem to be a reasonable
path to victory for Bloomberg, though his continued presence in the race is
likely to muddy the waters a bit.
Where do we go from here?
Today is March 3rd, also known as “Super Tuesday”
with respect to the 2020 primary season.
It is a day where 14 states have chosen to hold their primary elections,
and the biggest single day of the election cycle. After all the votes have been cast and counted,
the overall picture should be clearer. With the recent exists of Pete Buttigieg
and Amy Klobuchar from the race, the moderate wing of the Democratic party
seems to be lining up being Joe Biden. Sanders, on the other hand, enjoys a
clear advantage among the growing progressive wing of the party. At this point, there are many things that are
still unknown, including:
- Will Klobuchar and Buttigieg’s voters throw their support behind Biden?
- How much support can Bloomberg’s money and message buy?
- Which candidate(s) does Bloomberg’s support pull from most?
- How long will Bloomberg stay in the race?
- Can Warren maintain her presence as a significant player now that the field is reduced?
- Can Warren generate momentum as a true 3rd option between Biden and Bernie?
- If Warren can’t mount a charge, will she endorse one of the remaining candidates? Who?
It is possible that some of these questions will be answered
in the coming days, but I don’t expect clarity anytime soon. Most of the polling that I’ve seen suggests
that Amy and Pete’s voters will not necessarily line up behind Biden but will spread
their votes around. Bloomberg’s money
will allow him to easily remain a thorn in everyone’s side for as long as he
wants, but he’ll likely end up pivoting to support whoever is best positioned
to beat Trump. Warren is the true wild
card, as one of only three remaining candidates with a viable path to victory. If she can pile up a significant number of
pledged delegates in the coming days and weeks, her campaign becomes even more
intriguing. A disappointing Super
Tuesday for Warren would essentially end her chances, though I’m still not sure
where she’d go from there.
Final Thoughts
Before the polls start closing across the country, prior to
the final tabulation of votes, and ahead of the endless stream of pundits telling
us “what it all means,” I’d like to conclude with my own personal thoughts.
Donald Trump is the worst President in my lifetime, and
possibly the worst President in the entire history of the United States. He is an ignorant, race-baiting, narcissist with
an extensive history as a sexual predator and serial abuser. Since taking
office, he has managed to chip away at the pillars of our system of government
and widen the already deep divisions of our nation. His corruption and criminality will forever
be a stain on the office of the Presidency that will take years to recover
from. His legacy will eventually show
that he was an illegitimate President installed with the assistance of hostile
foreign powers, an ineffective leader whose actions were in service to himself,
and a criminal who tarnished everything and everyone that he touched. It is imperative for the survival of our
nation that we accelerate his exit from our government. Given the failure and cowardice of a
criminally complicit Republican Congress, our next opportunity to act is on
November 3rd, 2020.
Mike Bloomberg is a “Never Trump” Republican. He is not, and has never been, part of the Democratic
party, and, despite his advertisements, does not share the ideas or ideals of
Democrats (moderate or progressive). To
his credit, he recognized that Trump was a dangerous experiment before most of
his Republican colleagues, and supported his opponent in 2016. His efforts to highlight the danger that Trump
presents to our nation are welcome, though his presence in the Democratic
primary is not. I sincerely hope that he
decides to exit the race and let the actual Democrats put their best candidate
forward.
Joe Biden is a good man, and a lifelong public servant. His long history in politics brings with it
some admirable achievements as well as significant baggage. He is not a good speaker, is sub-par as a
debater, and has a well-documented history of gaffes and missteps. He is 78 years old, unlikely to serve
multiple terms if elected President, and his politics don’t speak to younger
voters. His extensive experience in both
domestic and international politics will serve as a welcome change after 4
years of Donald Trump incompetent administration. Unlike Trump, he likely does know many of the
“best people,” and I have no doubt that he’d have an army of qualified candidates
to help him rebuild the federal government if elected. His extensive history in the public view will
give the Trump campaign plenty of red-meat to chew on for attack ads, and his
lack of support for progressive priorities risks alienating the fastest growing
parts of the party. If progressives fail
to “turn out” for Biden, this will also put the Senate majority and House
representation at risk.
Bernie Sanders is another high risk, high reward
candidate. While his candidacy comes
with a built-in army of (mostly) progressive supporters, social media superiority,
and fundraising capabilities, he is also viewed by many Democrats as an
outsider. He has a long history of
clashing with the Democratic “establishment,” insists on embracing the “socialist”
label, and has his own long history in politics for opposing campaigns to
exploit. Bernie’s history in Congress has been praised by many for his
consistent stance and support for issues such as universal healthcare, workers
rights and progressive economic policies.
He has also remained remarkably consistent in his opposition to involving
the United States in foreign wars. At the same time, he has held questionable
positions on gun rights, crime and social justice issues, and seems to have an
odd infatuation with Russia. The Russia
concerns include voting against the Magnitsky Act (2012), which imposed
significant financial sanctions on Russian oligarchs, and is seen as one of the
underlying reasons for Russia’s election interference in 2016 (Sanders was one
of only 4 votes against this legislation).
Much like with Biden, many Democrats fear that nominating Sanders could
suppress certain voters, specifically moderates, independents and former Republicans
who aren’t sold on Trump’s performance as President.
Supporters of Elizabeth Warren (like myself) tend to see her
as a viable third option who exists somewhere between the perceived extremes of
Bernie and Biden. Her personal story is a
compelling one which is grounded in both personal and professional
experience. Her actual policy positions
are quite progressive, which should have obvious appeal to Sanders voters. Her approach to these issues is much more
pragmatic, however, and she is appropriately seen as less of a “radical” than Sanders. Her journey is intriguing, as a former registered
Republican whose groundbreaking research into the causes and effects of personal
bankruptcy transformed her into a fierce advocate for financial reform and consumer
protection.
Her leadership in the
fallout of the 2008 financial collapse led to greater financial regulations and
the creation of the CFPB, which has returned more than $12 billion to consumers
from penalties enforced on large financial institutions. As a Senator, she has
been instrumental in holding companies like Wells Fargo accountable for
scamming customers. As a candidate for
President, her “I’ve got a plan for that,” slogan highlights the detailed
nature of her policy proposals, showing both what she is proposing, AND how she
will pay for them. Warren also provides
a good compromise between the “career politician” label of Biden and Sanders,
and the “political outsider” label that some candidates (such as Trump) have
used to their benefit. She has limited
political baggage from previous votes such as the Iraq war resolution or the
1996 crime bill, while her experience working with the Obama administration and
her two terms in the Senate make concerns about lack of experience fall flat. Finally, if anyone has any doubts about how
she will perform in a head to head debate with Donald Trump, the bloodied
corpse of Mike Bloomberg has a message for you (she’ll be fine).
I have no doubt who I’d like to represent the Democratic
party (and the country) as we continue our march to November. I hope that by reading this, others can gain
some perspective into how we got here, where we are at, and where we’re
headed. If I’ve convinced anyone to support
Elizabeth Warren, that’s good too. What
is more important than anything else, however, is this:
The perfect candidate does not exist.
No candidate is going to check all boxes for all voters.
We must ALL support whichever candidate emerges from this
crowded field if we are going to finally rid ourselves of Donald Trump.
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